Smallpox Eradication

By Steph33
Scroll to open

Still Open

Seven items on a problem this slate calls solved. The disease is gone and has stayed gone for forty-eight years. Everything below is about the virus, the immunity, or the ability to respond, and none of it is closed.

The Virus Itself

Three items. The first has been open since 1996.

unresolved
Open

Destroy or retain the declared stocks. Called for in 1996, deadline missed in 1999, renewed in 2002, reviewed in 2007, reaffirmed without a date in 2011, retained again in 2024. Next review 2029. Track whether it produces a date. [6] [8] [9] [10] [11]

unknown
Open

Undeclared stocks. The 2014 NIH find showed that "known to retain" was doing real work in the 1980 wording. [2] [12] No sourced estimate exists here of how many forgotten samples might remain in old freezers, and it may not be estimable.

The Immunity That Was Given Up

Two items, both consequences of a decision that was correct when it was made.

unmeasured
Open

Current population immunity is inferred from vaccination cessation dates, not measured. [21] A serological survey of orthopoxvirus immunity in any population would be a strong contribution, and its absence from this slate is itself worth recording.

The Ability To Respond

Two items. Both are about what would happen next week, not what happened in 1977.

pending
Open

The 2029 review. When it happens, the timeline, the forks page and the status line on this slate all need rechecking against whatever it decides. [9]

Note what is not on this page. Nothing here is about smallpox transmission, because there is none. This is what a solved problem looks like from close up: the file is closed and the tail is still moving.

Two smaller gaps in the sources rather than in the world. This slate has one audited emergency-vaccination record and it is American [18], and one figure for peak Indian search staffing that two sources disagree about [3] [4]. Either would be a good first contribution.