Ozone Layer Depletion

By Steph33
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Timeline

From the paper that predicted the problem to the report that is still being written. Thirteen years passed between the first warning and the first binding cuts.

The Warning, 1974 to 198501.01.1974 – 16.05.1985
01.01.1974Molina and Rowland show in Nature how chlorine from CFCs destroys ozone [1]
01.01.1974
01.01.1978The US bans CFCs in spray cans. Canada, Sweden and Norway do the same [7]
01.01.1978
22.03.1985The Vienna Convention is agreed. It sets up talks but requires no cuts [3]
22.03.1985
16.05.1985Farman, Gardiner and Shanklin report the Antarctic ozone hole [2]
16.05.1985

The order of those last two entries is the whole story. The world agreed a treaty with no cuts in it, and eight weeks later learned there was a hole over Antarctica. Before May 1985 ozone loss was a prediction that could be argued with. After it, it was a measured fact. Binding cuts followed two years later. [2] [3]

The Fix, 1987 to 199616.09.1987 – 01.01.1992
16.09.198746 countries sign the Montreal Protocol, with binding cuts [4]
16.09.1987
01.01.1988The Ozone Trends Panel reports. DuPont drops its opposition and backs a ban [6]
01.01.1988
01.01.1990The London Amendment creates a fund to pay poorer countries' costs [5]
01.01.1990
01.01.1992Countries meet in Copenhagen and move the rich-country CFC deadline to 1996 [4]
01.01.1992
The Long Tail, 2000 to Now29.09.2000 – 01.01.2026
29.09.2000The hole reaches its record size of 29.9 million square kilometres [21]
29.09.2000
01.01.2009Nitrous oxide is named the biggest ozone-damaging gas still uncontrolled [14]
01.01.2009
15.10.2016The Kigali Amendment is agreed, to cut HFCs [9]
15.10.2016
01.01.2018Air monitoring picks up CFC-11 emissions that should not exist [10]
01.01.2018
01.01.2019The source is traced to eastern China, about 40 to 60% of the global rise [11]
01.01.2019
01.01.2021CFC-11 emissions drop back to where they were before 2013 [12] [13]
01.01.2021
01.01.2022The WMO and UNEP confirm recovery is on track [8]
01.01.2022
01.01.2026The next four-yearly report is due. Not published as of August 2026 [23]
01.01.2026

The record hole came in 2000, thirteen years after the treaty was signed. That is not a failure of the treaty. CFCs already in the air last decades, so peak damage arrives long after the emissions stop. Any slate about a slow pollutant needs to separate the date a policy worked from the date the harm peaked.