:TIMELINE [links:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001018724/000101872426000038/amzn-20261029.htm]
AI capex fear builds to a market crisis
2025-01-27 | Nvidia loses ~$593B in one session after DeepSeek model release — Nasdaq's worst single-day wipeout on record at that point.
2026-10-28 | Alphabet releases Q3 results after the close: revenue $127.6B (miss), EPS $2.12 (miss), free cash flow -$9.1B, capex $51.4B (+114% YoY).
2026-10-29 | Alphabet shares fall 12.6%; ~$500B wiped. Amazon and Intel report after the close: Amazon EPS $1.89 (miss), negative free cash flow; Intel guides Q4 revenue to $15B–$16B vs $17.05B estimate.
2026-10-30 | Intel opens down ~30% — worst single-session loss in company history. Amazon falls ~6.5%. Nasdaq-100 sheds more than $1 trillion. AMD slides ~10%, Nvidia ~3.7%.

:COUNTER
~30% Intel one-day loss — worst in company history

:STATS [links:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000050863/000005086326000188/intc-20261029.htm]
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Intel (INTC) share price change, 30 Oct | ~-30% (record worst day)
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Amazon (AMZN) share price change, 30 Oct | ~-6.5%
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Nasdaq-100 market value erased, 30 Oct | ~$1 trillion
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Nasdaq-100 value erased in October 2026 | ~$2 trillion
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] AMD share price change, 30 Oct | ~-10%
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Nvidia share price change, 30 Oct | ~-3.7%
[icon:CHART] Intel Q3 2026 revenue | $16.5B (+21% YoY)
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Intel Q4 2026 revenue guidance | $15B–$16B (est. $17.05B)
[icon:CHART] Amazon Q3 2026 revenue | $201.9B (+12% YoY, miss vs $202.2B est.)
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Amazon Q3 2026 EPS | $1.89 (est. $1.97–$2.01)
[icon:TRENDING_DOWN] Amazon trailing free cash flow (Q3) | -$42.4B
[icon:CHART] Amazon AWS revenue (Q3 2026) | $46B (+39% YoY)
[icon:CHART] Amazon 2026 capital expenditure plan | $220B

:INFO
What is confirmed and what is not yet known
Confirmed: Intel Q3 2026 revenue $16.5B (+21% YoY); Q3 GAAP EPS $0.60, non-GAAP EPS $0.52. Intel Q4 guidance: revenue $15B–$16B, non-GAAP gross margin 38.0%, non-GAAP EPS $0.25 — all well below consensus. Intel data-centre and AI revenue grew 78% YoY to $7.3B in Q3; client computing fell 5% to $8.1B. CFO David Zinsner cited ongoing PC market softness "at least through the first half of next year." Amazon Q3 revenue $201.9B (+12% YoY); operating income $28.1B (record 13.9% margin); AWS $46B (+39% YoY); EPS $1.89 vs estimate $1.97. Amazon committed to ~$220B in 2026 capex; CEO Andy Jassy said spending will increase "meaningfully more" in 2027. The Nasdaq-100 index fell to its lowest level in nearly three months.
Not yet confirmed: whether Intel's PC recovery timeline will shift; whether Amazon's negative free cash flow ($42.4B trailing) represents a permanent shift or a build-phase peak; specific 2027 capex figure for Amazon or Alphabet; whether any mega-cap will reduce AI spending guida

:QUOTE [links:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000050863/000005086326000188/intc-20261029.htm, quotetype:plain, subtitle:Lip-Bu Tan — Intel CEO]
Our Q3 results demonstrate improving execution and meaningful progress expanding supply. Despite near-term headwinds across the PC industry, demand for our CPUs remains robust.

:CHECKLIST
What to watch next
[ ] Intel Q4 2026 results (due late January 2027): will revenue recover above the $15B–$16B guide?
[ ] Amazon Q4 2026 guidance: operating income $28.5B–$33.5B; revenue $240B–$247B — beats or misses will reset the narrative.
[ ] Nvidia Q3 2026 results: any sign of data-centre demand softening will be read as a sector inflection.
[ ] Fed rate path: traders price >50 bps of hikes by mid-2027; costlier debt makes $220B+ capex pledges harder to justify.
[ ] AI return on investment: next earnings cycle (Jan–Feb 2027) will be the first broad test of whether AI revenue is catching capex.

:NOTE
Last updated 30 October 2026, 18:00 UTC. Intel Q3 2026 results and Q4 guidance: Intel Form 8-K (sec.gov, filed 29 Oct 2026; primary source). Amazon Q3 2026 results: Amazon Form 8-K (sec.gov, filed 29 Oct 2026; primary source) and earnings press release (s2.q4cdn.com). Market moves and context: BBC Business (bbc.co.uk, 17:47 UTC 30 Oct 2026), Bloomberg (bloomberg.com), Reuters via Yahoo Finance, CNBC. Comparison data (Nvidia Jan 2025): Yahoo Finance. Cover: stock market ticker board, rawpixel.com

:LINK
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001018724/000101872426000038/amzn-20261029.htm
Amazon.com Form 8-K — Q3 2026 results (primary source, SEC EDGAR, 29 Oct 2026)

:LINK
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000050863/000005086326000188/intc-20261029.htm
Intel Corporation Form 8-K — Q3 2026 results (primary source, SEC EDGAR, 29 Oct 2026)