![Fed October 2026: Rates Held at 3.75 to 4 Percent](https://cdn.slatesource.com/e/d/9/ed911892-e088-427b-be11-39e0e29201d2.webp)

# Fed October 2026: Rates Held at 3.75 to 4 Percent

- [Made in Slatesource](https://slatesource.com/@steph/fed-october-2026-rates-held-at-3-75-to-4-percent)
- By [Steph](https://slatesource.com/@steph)
- Created on Oct 28, 2026

**~80%** CME FedWatch probability of a 25 bp hike on 9 December

## What the Fed decided

The Fed held its rate at 3.75 to 4 percent on 28 October. The vote was 10 to 2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike. Markets now price a December increase as the likely outcome.

> Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six years.
>
> — federalreserve.gov

Fed funds target range

3.75% to 4.00%

September CPI, year-on-year

3.7%

Core CPI, year-on-year

2.6%

Vote to hold / dissent for a hike

10 / 2

2-year Treasury yield after the decision

4.772%

How the Fed got here10.12.2025 – 09.12.2026

10.12.2025Holds at 3.50-3.75% as inflation edges back up.

10.12.2025

18.03.2026Holds again, signals patience with inflation above 3%.

18.03.2026

17.09.2026Raises 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023.

17.09.2026

28.10.2026Holds at 3.75-4.00%, 10-2 vote, two want a hike.

28.10.2026

09.12.2026Next meeting, a hike is priced at about 78%.

09.12.2026

## What is not known yet

The statement gives no explicit guidance on December. It is not confirmed whether Cook keeps dissenting or whether more members turn hawkish. Warsh has not named a threshold for a December hike. October CPI, due mid-November, is the next data point before the meeting.

What to watch next

0%

\- 2026-11-04: US midterm elections, which may shift the fiscal outlook the Fed monitors.

\- 2026-11-12 (est.): October CPI release, the key input before December.

\- 2026-12-09: FOMC decision, with an updated dot plot and economic projections.

\- 2027: One of eight FOMC meetings becomes strategy-only, with no rate vote.

How we know this. Updated 28 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Rate decision and FOMC statement: Federal Reserve press release, 28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC (federalreserve.gov). Vote breakdown and dissent details: Fox Business (foxbusiness.com, 18:00 UTC) and Yahoo Finance live blog. Chair Warsh press conference quotes: Kiplinger and Fox Business live updates. CME FedWatch probabilities: sundayguardianlive.com citing CME Group data and CNBC. September CPI and core CPI: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

[Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 (primary source)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm?utm_source=slatesource)

[Fox Business: Federal Reserve holds rates steady ahead of midterm elections](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-october-28-2026?utm_source=slatesource)

[CNBC: Fed interest rate decision October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html?utm_source=slatesource)

[Yahoo Finance: Fed meeting live updates](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/live/fed-meeting-live-updates-federal-reserve-october-meeting-kevin-warsh-161129201.html?utm_source=slatesource)

[Sunday Guardian Live: Fed holds rates, December hike bets near 80 percent](https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/breaking-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-at-375-4-amid-rising-inflation-december-rate-hike-bets-near-80-313400/?utm_source=slatesource)