:COUNTER
~80% CME FedWatch probability of a 25 bp hike on 9 December

:INFO
What the Fed decided
The Fed held its rate at 3.75 to 4 percent on 28 October. The vote was 10 to 2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike. Markets now price a December increase as the likely outcome.

:QUOTE [links:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm, quotetype:plain, subtitle:Kevin Warsh - Federal Reserve Chair (28 October 2026)]
Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six years.

:STATS
[icon:CHART] Fed funds target range | 3.75% to 4.00%
[icon:CHART] September CPI, year-on-year | 3.7%
[icon:CHART] Core CPI, year-on-year | 2.6%
[icon:USERS] Vote to hold / dissent for a hike | 10 / 2
[icon:CHART] 2-year Treasury yield after the decision | 4.772%

:TIMELINE
How the Fed got here
2025-12-10 | Holds at 3.50-3.75% as inflation edges back up.
2026-03-18 | Holds again, signals patience with inflation above 3%.
2026-09-17 | Raises 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023.
2026-10-28 | Holds at 3.75-4.00%, 10-2 vote, two want a hike.
2026-12-09 | Next meeting, a hike is priced at about 78%.

:INFO
What is not known yet
The statement gives no explicit guidance on December. It is not confirmed whether Cook keeps dissenting or whether more members turn hawkish. Warsh has not named a threshold for a December hike. October CPI, due mid-November, is the next data point before the meeting.

:CHECKLIST
What to watch next
[ ] - 2026-11-04: US midterm elections, which may shift the fiscal outlook the Fed monitors.
[ ] - 2026-11-12 (est.): October CPI release, the key input before December.
[ ] - 2026-12-09: FOMC decision, with an updated dot plot and economic projections.
[ ] - 2027: One of eight FOMC meetings becomes strategy-only, with no rate vote.

:NOTE
How we know this. Updated 28 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Rate decision and FOMC statement: Federal Reserve press release, 28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC (federalreserve.gov). Vote breakdown and dissent details: Fox Business (foxbusiness.com, 18:00 UTC) and Yahoo Finance live blog. Chair Warsh press conference quotes: Kiplinger and Fox Business live updates. CME FedWatch probabilities: sundayguardianlive.com citing CME Group data and CNBC. September CPI and core CPI: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

:LINK
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 (primary source)

:LINK
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-october-28-2026
Fox Business: Federal Reserve holds rates steady ahead of midterm elections

:LINK
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html
CNBC: Fed interest rate decision October 2026

:LINK
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/live/fed-meeting-live-updates-federal-reserve-october-meeting-kevin-warsh-161129201.html
Yahoo Finance: Fed meeting live updates

:LINK
https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/breaking-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-at-375-4-amid-rising-inflation-december-rate-hike-bets-near-80-313400/
Sunday Guardian Live: Fed holds rates, December hike bets near 80 percent