:NOW Last updated 2026-10-28 01:00 UTC. Built from the ABS official media release (00:30 UTC), Guardian (00:36 UTC), ABC News, CommBank Economics, finwire.io, and babypips.com. :INFO Australia's annual inflation rate rose to 4.3% in the year to September 2026,\ above the 4.2% forecast and up from 4.0% in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the data at 11:30 AEDT (00:30 UTC) on 28 October 2026. Monthly CPI rose 0.8% in September, above the 0.7% forecast, and quarterly CPI rose 1.3% for the July-September period. The result puts inflation well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target range. The RBA already raised its cash rate four times in 2026 to reach 4.60%, the highest level in 15 years. The next rate decision is 3 November 2026, and the hot September print has strengthened the case for a fifth hike this year. :COUNTER 4.3% Annual CPI rise to September 2026, above the 4.2% forecast :COUNTER 4.6% RBA cash rate, highest level since 2011 :STATS [icon:CHART] Annual CPI (headline) | 4.3% [icon:CHART] Monthly CPI rise (September) | 0.8% [icon:CHART] Quarterly CPI (Q3 2026) | 1.3% [icon:CHART] Core CPI trimmed mean (annual) | 3.6% [icon:CHART] Core CPI trimmed mean (quarterly) | 1.0% [icon:DOLLAR] RBA cash rate | 4.60% [icon:TRENDING_UP] Fuel prices (annual rise) | 23.6% [icon:TRENDING_UP] Electricity prices (annual rise) | 12.8% [icon:TRENDING_UP] Housing prices (annual rise) | 5.2% [icon:USERS] Unemployment rate (September 2026) | 4.7% :INFO What we know The ABS reported that housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation, rising 5.2% over the year. Transport prices rose 8.7% year-on-year, driven by pump prices up 23.6% from a year ago. Commonwealth electricity rebates that had been suppressing bills expired, sending electricity costs up 12.8% year-on-year. The quarterly trimmed mean of 1.0% came in above the RBA's own forecast of 0.8%, which is the figure most likely to influence the November board decision. CommBank senior economist Trent Saunders said the RBA will treat the result as "live" for November while keeping its baseline as a hold. Westpac forecasted another hike. Deputy RBA Governor Andrew Hauser had already shifted market pricing toward a hike in October when he described a "materially worse" inflation outlook. Before the data dropped, markets priced in roughly a 60-70% chance of a November hike. :INFO What is not known yet The RBA board has not telegraphed its November 3 decision. It is not known whether RBA Governor Michele Bullock will signal a hold or a hike at the post-decision press conference. The full quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, with new forecasts, is released alongside the decision. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has not yet made a public statement in response to the October 28 CPI print. It is not known whether any further government energy relief measures will be announced before November that could affect the outlook. :TIMELINE Australia inflation and RBA rate decisions in 2026 2026-02-18 | RBA raises cash rate 25 bps to 3.85%; inflation at 3.6%. 2026-04-07 | RBA raises cash rate 25 bps to 4.10%; April CPI reads 4.2%. 2026-06-30 | ABS: CPI 4.1% in May 2026 (monthly), headline easing from peak. 2026-09-29 | RBA raises cash rate 25 bps to 4.60%, fourth hike of 2026. 2026-09-30 | ABS: monthly CPI rises 4.0% in August, trimmed mean 3.6%. 2026-10-16 | Deputy Governor Hauser flags "materially worse" inflation outlook. 2026-10-28 | ABS releases September quarter CPI: 4.3% annual, 1.3% quarterly. 2026-11-03 | RBA board meets; decision and updated forecasts due. :QUOTE [links:https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/inflation-cpi-rba-interest-rates-november.html, quotetype:plain, subtitle:Trent Saunders - CommBank Senior Economist (28 October 2026)] While our baseline remains for the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged, we expect underlying inflation to improve beyond the September quarter, but only gradually. :MAP -33.8688,151.2093,Sydney. ABS headquarters; RBA Martin Place building -35.2809,149.13,Canberra. Reserve Bank of Australia head office -37.8136,144.9631,Melbourne. RBA board meets; second largest city by CPI weight :CHECKLIST What to watch next [ ] - 2026-11-03: RBA board decision, 14:30 AEDT. Governor Bullock press conference to follow. [ ] - 2026-11-03: Updated Statement on Monetary Policy with new inflation and GDP forecasts. [ ] - Late November 2026: ABS releases October monthly CPI (next data point before December meeting). [ ] - 2026-12-02: Next scheduled RBA board meeting. [ ] - Ongoing: Whether government announces new energy relief measures that could lower CPI. :NOTE How we know this. CPI figures: ABS official media release (abs.gov.au), 28 October 2026 11:30 AEDT (00:30 UTC). Guardian (00:36 UTC). ABC News covered RBA implications. CommBank Economics (commbank.com.au, Trent Saunders). finwire.io: fuel and electricity breakdown. babypips.com: market pricing. RBA rate history: rba.gov.au. Cover: RBA building, Martin Place, Sydney, photo by Danausi, 27 Nov 2008, public domain (PD-self), Wikimedia Commons (File:RBA Building.jpg). Cropped to 1:1 square. :LINK https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-43-year-september-2026 ABS: CPI rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026 (official media release) :LINK https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/28/inflation-rate-australia-2026-number-data-consumer-price-index-cpi-release Guardian: Australia's inflation rate rises to 4.3%, fuelling fears of fifth interest rate hike :LINK https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/inflation-cpi-rba-interest-rates-november.html CommBank Economics: September data will keep inflation pressure on RBA :LINK https://finwire.io/news/economy-news/australias-inflation-rate-rises-to-43-fuelling-fears-of-fifth-interest-rate-hike-this-year finwire.io: Australia's inflation rate rises to 4.3%, fuelling fears of fifth rate hike :LINK https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2026/2026-09-29.html RBA: Board minutes, September 2026 (fourth rate hike decision)