![F1 2026: The Final Eight Rounds](https://cdn.slatesource.com/9/8/c/98c4e2f7-3cde-4cb7-ad10-78414462584c.webp) # F1 2026: The Final Eight Rounds - [Made in Slatesource](https://slatesource.com/@steph/f1-2026-the-final-eight-rounds) - By [Steph](https://slatesource.com/@steph) - Created on Oct 1, 2026 ## 66 Points, 8 Races, One Championship to Lose Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship by 66 points over teammate George Russell after Round 15 in Baku. Eight races remain, offering a maximum of 190 points between them (including the Singapore Sprint). Russell closed the gap from 81 to 66 with his Baku win on September 26. Antonelli still holds every card that matters: the earliest he can clinch is Singapore on October 11. The median projection puts it at Mexico on November 1. As of October 1, 2026. P1 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) 302 pts P2 George Russell (Mercedes) 236 pts, gap: 66 P3 Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) 199 pts, gap: 103 P4 Lando Norris (McLaren) 186 pts, gap: 116 P5 Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 179 pts, gap: 123 P6 Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 163 pts, gap: 139 Max points still available 190 (7 races + Singapore Sprint) Points needed to clinch (over Russell) Antonelli gap must exceed 190 [F1.com: Official 2026 Drivers' Championship standings](https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/drivers?utm_source=slatesource) The Final 8 Rounds02.10.2026 – 06.12.2026 02.10.2026Round 16, Malaysia (Sepang). Normal race, 25 pts. First chance for Antonelli to extend his lead after Baku. 02.10.2026 11.10.2026Round 17, Singapore (Sprint weekend). Race 25 pts plus Sprint 8 pts. Earliest possible clinch if Russell scores zero across Rounds 16 and 17. 11.10.2026 25.10.2026Round 18, United States (COTA, Austin). Normal race, 25 pts. 25.10.2026 01.11.2026Round 19, Mexico City. Normal race, 25 pts. Median projection: Antonelli clinches here if season tracks the average. 01.11.2026 08.11.2026Round 20, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Normal race, 25 pts. 08.11.2026 21.11.2026Round 21, Las Vegas. Normal race, 25 pts. 21.11.2026 29.11.2026Round 22, Qatar. Normal race, 25 pts. 29.11.2026 06.12.2026Round 23, Abu Dhabi. Season finale, 25 pts. Calendar uncertainty: Qatar or Abu Dhabi may be dropped (decision mid-October). 06.12.2026 ## When It Can End: Three Scenarios Singapore (Round 17, Oct 11) is the earliest possible clinch. It requires Antonelli to win both Malaysia and Singapore (including the Sprint), with Russell scoring zero across both weekends. That scenario would leave Antonelli with a lead that 156 remaining points cannot close. It is possible. It is not likely. Mexico (Round 19, Nov 1) is the median projection. Antonelli has outscored Russell by an average of roughly eight points per race in 2026. If that continues, his gap grows to around 130 points entering Mexico, which the five remaining races cannot overhaul. Abu Dhabi (Round 23, Dec 6) is the last resort. Russell would need to win five or six of the final eight races and have Antonelli finish outside the points several times. In a season where Antonelli has finished outside the top six only twice (both mechanical retirements), that is the rarest outcome. > I'm not thinking about the championship. I'm just focusing on race by race. ## What Each Contender Actually Needs Russell must win roughly five of the final eight races while Antonelli scores poorly. In the 15 races so far, Russell has two wins. He needs a pace shift or a run of Antonelli reliability failures to make the maths move. Hamilton is 103 points behind. He would need a collapse from both Mercedes drivers simultaneous with Ferrari closing a gap they have not managed all year. Ferrari have not won a race since Bahrain in March. Norris at 116 behind is statistically eliminated. McLaren's pace improved after the summer break but not enough to win the championship from this deficit. Verstappen at 139 behind has not won a race in 2026. The Red Bull RB22 has been the fourth-fastest car in most conditions under the new power unit regulations, and there is no realistic path to the title from here. ![](https://cdn.slatesource.com/9/8/c/98c4e2f7-3cde-4cb7-ad10-78414462584c.webp) Racing car passes a marshal at trackside. Photo from Rawpixel (CC0). [F1.com: Official points permutations for the 2026 championship](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/points-permutations-when-is-the-earliest-antonelli-could-win-the-world-championship.24UKT2fsQl4GmC5DMrmYUy?utm_source=slatesource)