:INFO
Diesel is trading at a record $78.91 per barrel above Brent crude. Petrol is \
$62.07 above it. The war did not do this alone. The refineries did.
In the week ending August 31, petrol averaged EUR 1.95 a litre across the EU, about 4% below its June 2022 peak. Diesel averaged EUR 2.04, only 3% below its all-time record of EUR 2.11, set in April 2026. In the United States, drivers are paying roughly $4.06 per gallon, down from a 2026 high of $4.56 but still 36% above what petrol cost before the US and Israel struck Iran, per AAA. Brent crude, meanwhile, settled around $95 on September 5, trading between $73 and $126 since February. That is nowhere near a record. The gap between crude and what consumers pay at the pump is the story, and it has a structural cause that a ceasefire alone would not immediately close.
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:STATS
[icon:CHART] Diesel crack spread (Sep 5 2026) | $78.91/barrel above Brent, a record
[icon:CHART] Petrol crack spread (Sep 5 2026) | $62.07/barrel above Brent
[icon:TRENDING_UP] EU petrol average (week of Aug 31) | EUR 1.95/litre (4% below Jun 2022 peak)
[icon:TRENDING_UP] EU diesel average (week of Aug 31) | EUR 2.04/litre (3% below Apr 2026 record)
[icon:FIRE] US regular petrol (Sep 5 2026) | ~$4.06/gallon, still 36% above pre-war level
[icon:CHART] Brent crude (Sep 5 2026) | ~$95/barrel (range: $73 to $126 since Feb)
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:LINK
https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/09/05/why-are-petrol-and-diesel-so-expensive-despite-crude-oil-not-reaching-record-highs
Euronews: Why are petrol and diesel so expensive despite crude not at record highs?
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:INFO
The bottleneck is the refinery, not the well.
Crude oil is a raw input. The "crack spread," the premium finished fuel commands over the crude it is made from, reflects the cost and scarcity of refining capacity. When spreads hit records, as they did on September 5, the message is not that crude is dear. It is that there is not enough refining capacity to convert available crude into finished products fast enough. "This is increasingly a refining and product-supply problem rather than simply a crude-supply problem," said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining at Kpler. US refinery utilization reached roughly 98% in the final week of August, the highest in years. European refineries are also running at their highest levels in three to four years. Machines at near-maximum capacity have no headroom to absorb the next disruption.
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:QUOTE [quotetype:plain, subtitle:Sumit Ritolia · Lead Analyst for Refining · Kpler · September 2026]
This is increasingly a refining and product-supply problem rather than simply a crude-supply problem.
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:INFO
The wars removed roughly 5 million barrels of daily refining capacity from the map.
The US-Iran conflict left ships loaded with crude stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months. Refineries in the Middle East that would normally export diesel and jet fuel into European markets were damaged or closed. Russia compounded the shortage separately: Ukrainian drone strikes disabled refineries handling a significant share of Russian crude, cutting Moscow's finished-product exports. Valero COO Gary Simmons estimated the wars have shut down about 5 million barrels per day of refining capacity combined. That is roughly equal to removing every refinery in Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain at once.
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:LINK
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/06/refinery-gas-oil-prices-iran-ukraine-war.html
CNBC: Gas prices could remain high this fall even if crude prices stabilise
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:INFO
Petrol stocks in Amsterdam fell to a five-year low. Europe has no buffer left.
The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub is the main storage point for European refined products. Petrol stocks there fell to 752,000 tonnes in late August, the lowest since September 2021. When inventory is this thin, any disruption, a refinery fire, a demand spike, another Hormuz incident, passes directly into pump prices rather than being absorbed by the system. "If the Strait opens, the crude price would probably drop quite sharply," said Alan Gelder, Senior VP for refining at Wood Mackenzie. "The diesel premium would come down a bit more slowly, but you would see a price drop." The Strait is open but not normalised: a re-mining attempt on Larak Island was intercepted on August 30 and tanker war-risk insurance rates remain elevated.
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:QUOTE [quotetype:plain, subtitle:Alan Gelder · Senior VP for Refining · Wood Mackenzie · September 2026]
If the Strait opens, the crude price would probably drop quite sharply. The diesel premium would come down a bit more slowly, but you would see a price drop.
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:STATS
[icon:CHART] ARA petrol stocks (late Aug 2026) | 752,000 tonnes, lowest since Sep 2021
[icon:FIRE] Refining capacity lost (wars combined) | ~5 million barrels/day (Valero estimate)
[icon:CHART] US refinery utilisation (late Aug) | ~98%, near maximum
[icon:CHART] EU refinery runs (2026) | highest in 3 to 4 years
[icon:CLOCK] Eurozone inflation (Sep 2026) | 3.3%, driven mainly by energy prices
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:LINK
https://fortune.com/2026/07/11/global-oil-demand-crude-prices-gasoline-diesel-refined-products-inflation/
Fortune: Global oil demand is falling. Here is why diesel and gasoline are still costly.
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:INFO
China could ease this, but probably not by enough.
China has spare refining capacity and is exporting record diesel volumes. Its domestic demand has softened as EVs displace petrol consumption. The question is whether those exports can reach ARA in time to replenish stocks before the northern hemisphere winter pushes heating-oil and diesel demand higher. India is another potential source. Neither substitutes fully for the refining infrastructure that ran, close to home, before the wars. The structural return to normal pump prices waits not on a ceasefire alone but on a slow rebuild of the product supply chains the conflicts broke.