![Strait of Hormuz: The Ceasefire That Just Collapse](https://cdn.slatesource.com/5/5/0/550176e3-f785-45c1-bda8-32a024ac5fd4.webp) # Strait of Hormuz: The Ceasefire That Just Collapse - [Made in Slatesource](https://slatesource.com/@steph/strait-of-hormuz-the-ceasefire-that-just-collapse) - By [Steph](https://slatesource.com/@steph) - Created on Aug 5, 2026 The ceasefire is over. Again. On 9 July 2026 the United States struck 90 Iranian targets across five provinces in a single night, including the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles aimed at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The Islamabad Memorandum, signed just three weeks earlier to end the Iran war, is functionally dead. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil flows, is once again in question. US strike targets, 8 to 9 July 90 sites across southern and eastern Iran Iranian casualties reported 14 killed, 78 injured (Iranian state media) Ships through Hormuz in June 2026 576 (vs 233 in May, 3,100 in June 2025) Provinces struck 5, including Bushehr, Sistan-Baluchestan, and Golestan Ceasefire signed 17 June 2026, the Islamabad Memorandum journey·7 Dates # How the Ceasefire Fell Apart Event / Date April 8, Ceasefire 1.0 Pause "The first Iran war ceasefire is agreed, halting the most intense phase of US-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz begins to recover." ## Why the StraitStrait of HormuzHormuz Is the World'sWorld's PressurePressure PointPoint The StraitStrait of HormuzHormuz is a 21-mile-wide21-mile-wide passagepassage betweenbetween the southernsouthern tiptip of IranIran and the coastcoast of OmanOman. EveryEvery dayday, betweenbetween 17 and 21 millionmillion barrelsbarrels of crudecrude oiloil passpass throughthrough it on tankerstankers headingheading for AsiaAsia, EuropeEurope, and beyondbeyond. That is roughlyroughly oneone in everyevery fivefive barrelsbarrels of oiloil tradedtraded globallyglobally. SaudiSaudi ArabiaArabia, IraqIraq, KuwaitKuwait, the UAEUAE, and QatarQatar all dependdepend on the straitstrait to exportexport their productionproduction. ThereThere is no pipelinepipeline alternativealternative that can carrycarry comparablecomparable volumesvolumes. When IranIran threatensthreatens to closeclose the straitstrait, globalglobal fuelfuel pricesprices spikespike immediatelyimmediately. When the US-IranUS-Iran ceasefireceasefire reopenedreopened it in JuneJune, tankertanker traffictraffic roserose from 233233 shipsships in MayMay to 576576 in JuneJune. As of 11 JulyJuly, that traffictraffic has droppeddropped sharplysharply againagain followingfollowing the secondsecond roundround of strikesstrikes. The diplomatic path. Pakistan's army chief and Qatar's foreign minister are in contact with Tehran and Washington simultaneously. Iran's foreign minister has spoken to his Saudi, Turkish, and Omani counterparts, a sign that regional intermediaries are trying to restore talks. Trump has left open the door to renewed negotiations even while declaring the ceasefire finished. A source of cautious optimism: both sides said similar things in April before the Islamabad talks began. The 60-day negotiati What changes if Hormuz closes. A full Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz has never been achieved but even a partial disruption, mining, intimidation of tankers, or denial of safe passage, is enough to spike Brent crude by 20 to 40 percent within days. Insurance premiums for Hormuz transits have already risen sharply. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases can buffer domestic supply for weeks, not months. The last time traffic was this disrupted, in early 2026 before the April ceasefire, th > The deal is very simple. If they shoot at ships, we are going to knock the hell out of them. [ABC News: How the US-Iran ceasefire broke down, a timeline](https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392&utm_source=slatesource) [Al Jazeera: US conducts new wave of strikes as ceasefire falters](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/us-says-conducting-new-wave-of-strikes-on-iran-as-ceasefire-falters-2?utm_source=slatesource)