:COUNTER
-1 million barrels per day: global oil demand in 2026 vs 2025, the first annual \

:STATS

:TIMELINE
⚔️🛢️📉
2026-02-28 | US and Israeli joint air strikes on Iran ignite the Middle East war. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halts almost immediately.
2026-03-01 | Brent crude surges toward $150/bbl. The IEA still forecasts modest demand growth for the year (+640 kb/d), expecting a quick resolution.
2026-04-01 | 14 million barrels per day of Gulf crude flows are offline. Saudi and Iraqi exports fall by more than 3 mb/d each. IEA flips its 2026 call to a decline for the first time in its April report.
2026-05-01 | Aviation activity collapses. Petrochemical plants in Japan and South Korea cut output by up to 290 kb/d each as feedstocks run short. Jet fuel prices triple.
2026-06-18 | US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding. The Strait begins to reopen. Brent drops $31/bbl over the month, finishing near $68 by early July.
2026-07-10 | IEA July oil market report confirms the full-year damage: demand down 1 mb/d in 2026, the worst annual contraction since 2020. A rebound of 2 mb/d is forecast for 2027, but recovery will not be swift or linear.

:NOTE.half
[icon:warning] Who got hit hardest
OECD Asia bore the sharpest blow. Japan and South Korea, whose giant import-dependent petrochemical sectors run entirely on Gulf feedstocks, each saw demand fall by 290 kb/d year on year in April alone. Aviation globally ran well below normal for months, adding to the pressure on jet fuel.
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:NOTE.half
[icon:info] The EV and efficiency tail
The Hormuz shock was the trigger, but not the only force at work. Underlying EV adoption and fuel-efficiency improvements had already trimmed expected demand growth to roughly 700 kb/d for 2026 before the war. Analysts note that even in a world without the conflict, 2026 was shaping up as the weakest demand year since the pandemic recovery stalled.


:QUOTE [quotetype:plain, subtitle:Toril Bosoni]
There will not be a swift or linear recovery. The situation in the region remains very uncertain and unstable.


:THREAD

:LINK
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2026
IEA: Oil Market Report July 2026

:LINK
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/iea-world-oil-demand-declines-iran-war.html
CNBC: World oil demand set for first annual decline since 2020, IEA says