:INFO
Separating the Quality of a Decision From Its Outcome
Annie Duke spent years as a professional poker player and used that experience to build a framework for thinking more clearly under uncertainty. The book's central argument changed me: a bad outcome does not mean a bad decision, and a good outcome does not mean a good one. That sounds obvious on paper. It is genuinely difficult to actually believe when something has gone wrong.


:NOW
Tracking my decisions by quality of process not outcome

:QUOTE [quotetype:plain, subtitle:Annie Duke]
A great decision is the product of a good process, not a good outcome.


:JOURNEY
Reading Thinking in Bets
5 Named the bias
4 Reframes uncertainty
4 Needs practice
3 Hard to set up

:TASK
[ ] Before my next big decision write down my confidence percentage explicitly

:POLL
Do you think most people confuse bad outcomes with bad decisions?
Yes, almost universally
Often, but it depends on how reflective the person is
Only in genuinely high stakes situations
No, most people are better at separating them than this book suggests