
Days since Russia's full-scale invasion
1,713
Ukrainians displaced (UN estimate)
14.6 million
German aid to Ukraine in 2026
€11.5 billion
Days to Abu Dhabi trilateral talks
7
Rounds of US-mediated talks so far
3
| Party | Ceasefire line | Territory | Security guarantees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Current front line | No cessions; all occupied territory remains Ukrainian | NATO membership or equivalent hard guarantees from US and Europe |
| Russia | Demands Ukraine withdraw from all four annexed oblasts | Recognise annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson | Ukraine neutrality; no NATO; army size limits |
| United States | Pragmatic ceasefire on current line | Does not endorse Russian annexation but seeks flexibility | Supports European security architecture; no firm NATO offer yet |
Energy and maritime ceasefire — halting attacks on power plants and Black Sea shipping
Exchange of military and civilian captives — Ukraine estimates 30,000+ Ukrainian POWs held
Return of abducted Ukrainian children — UN documents at least 19,546 cases
De-escalation measures along the front line — observers, buffer zones
Next steps toward a formal peace framework — not a final peace treaty
The territorial question — Russia's annexation demands vs Ukraine's refusal to cede land
NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees for Ukraine — deferred to a later stage
Reparations and reconstruction funding — Zelenskyy asked Europe for €70B for 2027
War crimes accountability — no mechanism agreed or on the agenda
Crimea — neither side has softened its position
What happens next
Zelenskyy arrives in Berlin for talks with Merz — confirmed 3 Nov 2026
Witkoff announces Abu Dhabi talks for 10–11 Nov — confirmed 3 Nov 2026
US negotiators meet France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO in Brussels — this week
Zelenskyy-Merz press conference outcomes published — midday 3 Nov Berlin
Abu Dhabi working-level talks — 10–11 November 2026
If energy ceasefire agreed — phased halt to strikes on power infrastructure
Leader-level summit — no date set; depends on working-level progress
Formal peace framework — not expected before early 2027 at the earliest
What is not confirmed: Zelenskyy-Merz press conference outcomes from the Berlin meeting on 3 Nov (meeting scheduled for midday local time; results not yet published at time of writing). Russia has not confirmed its Abu Dhabi delegation. Kremlin said attendance depends "in part on battlefield conditions." Abu Dhabi venue could change if the situation in the Middle East worsens. Sources: The Guardian 08:47 UTC 3 Nov (in-window); Axios 3 Nov 2026 (Witkoff announcement); Kyiv Independent; The Moscow