Ryanair fares to rise up to 20% as fuel costs soar
H1 FY2027 pre-tax profit
EUR 2.43B (down 16%)
Fuel and oil costs
EUR 3.40B (up 15%)
H1 passengers
125.8M (up 6%)
Average fare
EUR 55.70 (down 4%)
Fuel hedge after March 2027
25% at $95/barrel vs ~$130 spot
Ryanair H1 pre-tax profit EUR billions
Why profit fell despite more passengers
Ryanair carried 6% more passengers and grew revenue 3% to EUR 10.08 billion. Profit fell because fuel costs jumped 15% to EUR 3.40 billion, driven by higher jet fuel prices following the outbreak of the Iran conflict in 2026. Average fares fell 4% as the airline competed for summer bookings. The combination left pre-tax profit 16% lower at EUR 2.43 billion.
What changes when fuel hedges expire in April 2027
| Area | Current (to March 2027) | From April 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel hedge | 80% at $67/barrel | 25% at $95/barrel |
| Spot fuel price | ~$130/barrel | ~$130/barrel (unhedged gap) |
| Fares | EUR 55.70 average (H1) | Up to 20% higher (CEO estimate) |
| Pay | Multi-year agreements active | Potential freeze under review |
| Cabin crew ratios | Standard | Lower on some flights |
What we know and what we do not know yet
Ryanair issued the H1 FY2027 results on 2 November 2026 via its investor relations site, the primary source for all figures on this page.
CEO Michael O'Leary told CNBC that European fares could rise by as much as 20%. He said EUR 5-10 fare increases should not dent demand significantly. The 20% figure would close the estimated EUR 2 billion fuel cost gap in FY2028.
The earnings release says Ryanair is reviewing "maturing labour agreements (which may require temporary pay freezes)." No percentage, no timeline and no affected group is named.
Air Baltic has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States. O'Leary cited it as an example of airlines struggling with unhedged fuel costs.
What is not known: Ryanair did not issue full-year profit guidance, citing zero visibility on Q4. We do not know which worker groups face a pay freeze or from what date. We do not know whether the Iran conflict will ease and push fuel prices back down before hedges expire.
What to watch
H1 FY2027 results released on 2 November 2026
2027-02: Interim dividend of EUR 0.273 per share payable
2027-02: EUR 800M share buyback begins (runs ~10 months)
2027-04: Current 80% fuel hedge at $67/barrel expires; unhedged exposure widens
2027-04: New labour agreements needed if pay freeze is enacted
2028: Full fuel hedge rollover; fares expected to reflect higher fuel cost
Figures are from the Ryanair H1 FY2027 investor results (primary source). Fare rise and pay freeze comments come from CEO O'Leary's CNBC interview and the official earnings release, both published 2 November 2026. The Guardian and BBC both confirmed the story independently from the same release. Not investment advice.
