RBA Hikes Rate to 4.85%: 18-Year High
4.85%Australia cash rate target from 3 November 2026
Five hikes in 2026
| Date | Decision | New rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | +25 bp | 3.85% | Unanimous |
| 17 Mar 2026 | +25 bp | 4.10% | 5-4 |
| 5 May 2026 | +25 bp | 4.35% | 8-1 |
| 29 Sep 2026 | +25 bp | 4.60% | Unanimous |
| 3 Nov 2026 | +25 bp | 4.85% | 6-3 |
Extra per month on $500k mortgage
+$77
Extra per month on $731k mortgage (average)
+$115
Extra per month on $750k mortgage
+$120
Cumulative rise since January 2026 on $600k
+$500/month
Sept 2026 CPI year-on-year
4.3%
RBA inflation target band
2-3%
What is not yet settled
No explicit guidance was given on whether a sixth hike will follow. The Board said policy is well placed to respond.
The next RBA meeting date is 9 December 2026. No decision has been signalled.
A recession is not in the RBA's central case, but recession risk has risen with each successive hike.
October CPI, due mid-November, is the next key data point before December.
What to watch next
- 2026-11-12 (est.): October CPI release, the critical input before December.
- 2026-11-03: Governor Bullock press conference, 03:30 UTC, for forward guidance.
- 2026-12-09: Next RBA Board meeting, with an updated Statement on Monetary Policy.
- 2027: Analysts at Westpac and CommBank forecast cuts begin August 2027 if inflation falls.
How we know this. RBA primary source: rba.gov.au media release mr-26-30, 3 November 2026 14:30 AEDT (03:30 UTC). Vote split and forward guidance: ABC News live blog (abc.net.au, 03:30 UTC), SBS live blog (sbs.com.au, 03:30 UTC). Mortgage repayment calculations by loan size: Canstar and REA Group analysis via savings.com.au and domain.com.au. Rate hike timeline: Kalkine Australia (kalkine.com.au) and rbawatch.com. CPI 4.3%: Australian Bureau of Statistics media release (abs.gov.au), October 2026.
