Oscars 2027: The Best Picture Race Right Now
Awards Season 2026-27: Where Things Stand
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey has made $1.76 billion worldwide and leads every major prediction market. But three festival sensations are close behind, the calendar is about to turn serious, and the Oscars are four and a half months away. Here is what matters now.
The frontrunner
The Odyssey (Nolan), $1.76B worldwide
Telluride winner
Wild Horse Nine (McDonagh), John Malkovich
Cannes Best Director + TIFF
La Bola Negra (Los Javis), Penelope Cruz
Palme d'Or
Fjord (Mungiu), Sebastian Stan, Renate Reinsve
Critical darling
Project Hail Mary (Lord/Miller), 95% on RT
Ceremony
March 14, 2027 (99th Academy Awards, Dolby Theatre)
The Odyssey: $1.76 Billion and Still Climbing
Christopher Nolan's adaptation of Homer opened to $124.5 million domestically, the biggest non-franchise debut of 2026, and has now crossed $1.76 billion worldwide, making it the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time. Gold Derby gives it 93.9% odds for a Best Picture nomination and 100% from its panel of expert pundits. Matt Damon carries Odysseus across seven chapters. Anne Hathaway plays Athena. The craft categories are a near-sweep in prediction models: cinematography, production design, score, and sound are all above 97%. The one historical argument against it: the highest domestic grosser has not won Best Picture since Slumdog Millionaire in 2009.
Wild Horse Nine and La Bola Negra: The Festival Darlings
Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) was the runaway favourite at both Venice and Telluride, where it was described as the hands-down best film of the festival by nearly every attendee. John Malkovich leads Best Actor odds at 95.6%, with Sam Rockwell in supporting. Last year Searchlight was shut out at the Oscars entirely. This is their correction. La Bola Negra, from Spanish directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, won the Cannes Best Director Award and then the TIFF Audience Award, two precursor signals that together have a strong historical conversion rate. The film follows three gay men across three time periods, adapted from an unfinished novel by Federico Garcia Lorca. Penelope Cruz is in the cast. Gold Derby puts it at 92.9% for a Best Picture nomination.
Fjord (Palme d'Or)
Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or at Cannes. Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve star in this legal thriller and family drama distributed by Neon, whose recent Oscar track record is formidable. The Telluride response was more muted than expected, which has slightly cooled predictions, but Mungiu is exactly the kind of international arthouse director the Academy reliably nominates.
Project Hail Mary (95% on RT)
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's adaptation of Andy Weir's novel holds a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes alongside a 96% audience rating, making it the best-reviewed wide release of 2026. Ryan Gosling stars, Sandra Huller co-stars. It opened to $141 million worldwide in March, crossed $330 million total, and has been on Prime Video since July. Gold Derby places it at 88.3% for a Best Picture nomination.
The Race by the Numbers: Best Picture Nomination Odds
Gold Derby aggregates expert pundits and user predictions into probability scores. As of late October 2026 the Best Picture field looks like this. Ten nominees are chosen each year under the preferential ballot system; any film above roughly 85% is considered a near-lock.
The Odyssey (Nolan)
93.9%
La Bola Negra (Los Javis)
92.9%
Wild Horse Nine (McDonagh)
91.7%
The Debut (Eisenberg)
88.7%
Project Hail Mary (Lord/Miller)
88.3%
Dune: Part Three (Villeneuve)
~85%
Fjord (Mungiu)
~82%
Every Key Date Between Now and the Ceremony
As of October 31, 2026. All times Pacific. Dates subject to change.
The Academy now uses a preferential ballot (instant runoff) for Best Picture, not a simple plurality vote. A film can lead first-choice votes and still lose if it is no one's second choice. This is why The Odyssey's box office dominance does not guarantee a win: a consensus second-choice film can overtake the frontrunner on later rounds.
