Who got hit hardest OECD Asia bore the sharpest blow. Japan and South Korea, whose giant import-dependent petrochemical sectors run entirely on Gulf feedstocks, each saw demand fall by 290 kb/d year on year in April alone. Aviation globally ran well below normal for months, adding to the pressure on jet fuel.

The EV and efficiency tail The Hormuz shock was the trigger, but not the only force at work. Underlying EV adoption and fuel-efficiency improvements had already trimmed expected demand growth to roughly 700 kb/d for 2026 before the war. Analysts note that even in a world without the conflict, 2026 was shaping up as the weakest demand year since the pandemic recovery stalled.