Fed October 2026: Rates Held at 3.75 to 4 Percent
~80%CME FedWatch probability of a 25 bp hike on 9 December
What the Fed decided
The Fed held its rate at 3.75 to 4 percent on 28 October. The vote was 10 to 2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike. Markets now price a December increase as the likely outcome.
"Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six years.
"Kevin Warsh - Federal Reserve Chair (28 October 2026)
Fed funds target range
3.75% to 4.00%
September CPI, year-on-year
3.7%
Core CPI, year-on-year
2.6%
Vote to hold / dissent for a hike
10 / 2
2-year Treasury yield after the decision
4.772%
What is not known yet
The statement gives no explicit guidance on December. It is not confirmed whether Cook keeps dissenting or whether more members turn hawkish. Warsh has not named a threshold for a December hike. October CPI, due mid-November, is the next data point before the meeting.
What to watch next
- 2026-11-04: US midterm elections, which may shift the fiscal outlook the Fed monitors.
- 2026-11-12 (est.): October CPI release, the key input before December.
- 2026-12-09: FOMC decision, with an updated dot plot and economic projections.
- 2027: One of eight FOMC meetings becomes strategy-only, with no rate vote.
How we know this. Updated 28 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Rate decision and FOMC statement: Federal Reserve press release, 28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC (federalreserve.gov). Vote breakdown and dissent details: Fox Business (foxbusiness.com, 18:00 UTC) and Yahoo Finance live blog. Chair Warsh press conference quotes: Kiplinger and Fox Business live updates. CME FedWatch probabilities: sundayguardianlive.com citing CME Group data and CNBC. September CPI and core CPI: Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)
