COP31 Antalya: What's Actually Being Decided
$300 Billion a Year, Starting in 2035
COP31 opens in Antalya, Turkey on November 9, 2026, with a question that has stalked every climate summit since Glasgow: will rich countries actually pay what they promised? At COP29 in Baku, governments agreed to a "New Collective Quantified Goal" of at least $300 billion per year in climate finance for developing nations by 2035. COP31's job is to turn that pledge into a mechanism. Developing countries call the figure far short of the trillions needed. The conference runs to November 20, with a World Leaders Summit on November 11 and 12. As of November 1, 2026.
Conference dates
Nov 9 to 20, 2026
Venue
Antalya Expo Center, Turkey
Heads of state confirmed
85
Climate finance goal (COP29 NCQG)
$300B per year by 2035
Current warming trajectory (unconditional pledges)
approx 2.8 degrees C
Paris Agreement 1.5C requires global emissions drop by 2030
43% vs 2019
The Five Tracks Being Negotiated
Five issues will determine whether COP31 is remembered as a turning point or another deferred deadline. All five were left unresolved or contested at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, and arrive in Antalya with positions hardened.
COP31 negotiating tracks and current status
| Track | What's at stake | Current status |
|---|---|---|
| Climate finance (NCQG) | $300B per year by 2035, grants vs loans split | Developing nations say figure is too low. Composition unresolved. |
| Adaptation finance | Triple finance to $120B per year by 2030 | Africa asked for a formal agenda item. Developed countries resist. |
| Loss and damage | Start disbursing the Loss and Damage Fund | Governance unfinished. Santiago Network access still limited. |
| NDC 3.0 ambition | Do new 2035 targets close the 1.5C emissions gap? | 147 parties submitted by mid-2026. Gap analysis due at COP31. |
| Fossil fuel transition | Implement the COP28 "transition away" language | Oil-producing nations resist binding timelines. |
The US Factor
In January 2026, the Trump administration announced withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change itself, going beyond the Paris Agreement exit of the first Trump term. Whether any US delegation attends COP31 is unconfirmed. The US accounts for roughly 25% of cumulative historical emissions and is the world's largest economy. Its absence removes both a pressure point on fossil fuel nations and a potential contributor to the $300 billion finance goal. The EU, China, and the group of major emerging economies are expected to fill some of the diplomatic vacuum. How much is one of the unanswered questions of the summit.
The Turkey-Australia Arrangement
The COP31 Presidency sits with Turkey. Australia chairs the formal negotiations, with Climate Minister Chris Bowen holding "exclusive authority in relation to the negotiations." Turkey's Minister Murat Kurum holds the COP31 President title and runs the Action Agenda, which includes ten voluntary targets: 35% of final energy demand met by electricity by 2035, halving global waste growth by 2035, and cutting building energy intensity by 25%. Turkey's net-zero target is 2053, later than most G20 members, which makes it an unusual host for a summit pressing for faster action.
What Success Looks Like, and What Failure Looks Like
Success at COP31 would be: agreement on how the $300 billion NCQG is split between grants and loans, a formal agenda item secured for adaptation finance with a $120 billion per year floor by 2030, the Loss and Damage Fund disbursing its first grants to vulnerable nations, and NDC 3.0 analysis showing at least a reduced gap to 1.5C. Failure would be: another "we note the submissions" text on adaptation finance, the Loss and Damage Fund stalled on governance, and the finance goal acknowledged but with no disbursement mechanism, leaving the same text to return at COP32.