Separating the Quality of a Decision From Its Outcome

Annie Duke spent years as a professional poker player and used that experience to build a framework for thinking more clearly under uncertainty. The book's central argument changed me: a bad outcome does not mean a bad decision, and a good outcome does not mean a good one. That sounds obvious on paper. It is genuinely difficult to actually believe when something has gone wrong.

NOW

Tracking my decisions by quality of process not outcome

Updated Apr 2026

"
A great decision is the product of a good process, not a good outcome.
"
Annie Duke

journey·4 Sections

Reading Thinking in Bets

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Clearest label for something I had been doing

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Before my next big decision write down my confidence percentage explicitly

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