Thinking in Bets Changed My Decision Making

By KaiRenner85
Scroll to open

Separating the Quality of a Decision From Its Outcome

Annie Duke spent years as a professional poker player and used that experience to build a framework for thinking more clearly under uncertainty. The book's central argument changed me: a bad outcome does not mean a bad decision, and a good outcome does not mean a good one. That sounds obvious on paper. It is genuinely difficult to actually believe when something has gone wrong.

NOW

Tracking my decisions by quality of process not outcome

Updated Apr 2026
"

A great decision is the product of a good process, not a good outcome.

"

Annie Duke

journey·4 Sections

Reading Thinking in Bets

Usefulness

/

Section

Resulting conceptProbabilistic thinkingTime travel techniqueDecision groups12345
Clearest label for something I had been doing
Open

Before my next big decision write down my confidence percentage explicitly

Do you think most people confuse bad outcomes with bad decisions?

Log in to vote